It's certain that recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will swing close to Earth in 2032. The chances of an impact remain low — but with relatively limited observations so far, the odds are in flux.

Asteroid headed towards Earth might smash into the Moon, scientists say - Nasa expects chances of Earth collision to be revised down in future estimates

On 27 December last year, astronomers using the ATLAS survey telescope in Chile discovered a small asteroid moving away from Earth. Follow-up observations have revealed that the asteroid, 2024 YR4, is on a path that might lead to a collision with our planet on 22 December 2032.

YR4 does smash down on the lunar surface, the explosion might be visible from Earth and would leave a new crater on the near side of the moon