It's certain that recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will swing close to Earth in 2032. The chances of an impact remain low — but with relatively limited observations so far, the odds are in flux.

NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has calculated a 2.3% chance—roughly a 1-in-43 probability—that asteroid 2024 YR4 could impact Earth in 2032. While the number may sound alarming, astronomers emphasise that further observations will likely refine the asteroid’s trajectory and reduce any potential risk.

Although the chances of impact are slim, Bennu is still one of the most potentially hazardous known asteroids in our solar system, and we need to be prepared for what could come. A first-of-its-kind study simulated the planet-wide damage that would be caused by Bennu’s unlikely impact,

The near-earth object first discovered in 2024 has stirred up conversation on social media because of the potential for an impact.

By comparison, the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs and 70% of all other animal species on Earth around 65 million years ago was roughly 6 to 9 miles wide. Other notable impact events include one in 1908,